Marine cold-air outbreaks in the future: an assessment of IPCC AR4 model results for the Northern Hemisphere

first_imgFor many locations around the globe some of the most severe weather is associated with outbreaks of cold air over relatively warm oceans, referred to here as marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs). Drawing on empirical evidence, an MCAO indicator is defined here as the difference between the skin potential temperature, which over open ocean is the sea surface potential temperature, and the potential temperature at 700 hPa. Rare MCAOs are defined as the 95th percentile of this indicator. Climate model data that have been provided as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Report Four (AR4) were used to assess the models’ projections for the twenty-first century and their ability to represent the observed climatology of MCAOs. The ensemble average of the models broadly captures the observed spatial distribution of the strength of MCAOs. However, there are some significant differences between the models and observations, which are mainly associated with simulated biases of the underlying sea ice, such as excessive sea-ice extent over the Barents Sea in most of the models. The future changes of the strength of MCAOs vary significantly across the Northern Hemisphere. The largest projected weakening of MCAOs is over the Labrador Sea. Over the Nordic seas the main region of strong MCAOs will move north and weaken slightly as it moves away from the warm tongue of the Gulf Stream in the Norwegian Sea. Over the Sea of Japan there is projected to be only a small weakening of MCAOs. The implications of the results for mesoscale weather systems that are associated with MCAOs, namely polar lows and arctic fronts, are discussed.last_img read more

National Cupcake Week sponsored by Barry Callebaut

first_imgNational Cupcake Week (15 to 21 September) is delighted to reveal high quality chocolate manufacturer Barry Callebaut as an official sponsor.The event, organised by British Baker magazine and run alongside the National Cupcake Championships, celebrates cupcakes and invites professionals and home bakers alike to show their appreciation.Entries for the Championships are open with four categories each for professionals and home bakers: Classic; Themed; Made With Alcohol; and Free-from.There will be eight category winners with one from each branch crowned overall winner at Cake International at the NEC in Birmingham on 8 November. There is also a cupcake decorating competition for six to 12-year-olds. The deadline for all entries is 15 August with the finalists announced during National Cupcake Week itself.Sponsors and partnersBarry Callebaut is the world’s leading manufactuer of premium chocolate and cocoa products operating 50 cocoa and chocolate factories in 34 countries. In 2012 it acquired Spanish premium nut producer laMorella Nuts and last year the fillings and compounds business that is ASM. LaMorella Nuts supplies pastes, pralines and crocants to enhance ice creams, confectionery, biscuits and desserts, while ASM produces speciality compound chocolate, fillings, inclusions an decorations. National Cupcake Week is also sponsored by equipment supplier CaterForYou, partnered by Wellbeing of Women, the charity to improve the health of women and babies, and run in association with Cake International. Barry Callebaut’s brands include laMorella Nuts and fillings and compounds business ASM.last_img read more

Stolen Mungion Merch Worn In Armed Robbery Of Beauty Salon

Mungion Fall 2017 Tour Dates9/13 – Omaha, NE – Slowdown9/14 – Des Moines, IA – Vaudeville Mews9/21 – Thornville, OH – Resonance Music and Arts Festival9/28 – Stevens Point, WI – The Encore9/29 – Menasha, WI – The Source Public House9/30 – Minneapolis, MN – The Hook and Ladder10/18 – Columbus, OH – Notes10/19 – Cincinnati, OH – Octave10/20 – Peoria, IL – Kenny’s Westside Pub10/21 – Urbana, IL – The Canopy Club10/27 – Palatine, IL – Durty Nellie’s11/4 – Dekalb, IL – The House Cafe11/8 – Grand Rapids, MI – The Stache11/9 – Ferndale, MI – Parliament Room at Otus Supply11/10 – Cleveland, OH – Grog Shop11/11 – Erie, PA – Kings Rook Club11/14 – Buffalo, NY – Buffalo Iron Works11/15 – New York, NY – American Beauty11/16 – Northampton, MA – Iron Horse Music Hall11/17 – Allston, MA – Great Scott11/18 – Burlington, VT – Nectar’s A few weeks ago, Chicago-based jam up-and-comers Mungion were robbed on the road during their first-ever headlining tour. On August 25th around 11 am, the band’s van, trailer, and all of their gear were stolen from the West Village neighborhood of Detriot, Michigan. In the robbery, Mungion lost all of their instruments in addition to the band’s lighting rig, monitors, amps, merch, and more, racking up at least $41,500 worth of loss. In the weeks since, the music community has rallied around the band, raising $31,000 on the band’s GoFundMe to help them recoup some of their losses and get them back on the road with gear of their own.Mungion Has Van, Trailer, Gear, Lights, And All Stolen Ahead Of First-Ever Headlining TourAfter the news broke, many of us assumed that we’d never see Mungion’s gear again. However, in a bizarre twist of fate, some of Mungion’s merch appeared following the robbery—and it’s definitely not in a place we ever expected. A few days after Mungion was robbed, local news Fox 2 Detroit broke the story that five armed gunmen robbed a Kay Beauty Supply on Saturday, August 26th, at 8:40 pm in Dearborn, Michigan, a city nine miles west of Detroit. During the beauty store hold-up, the armed robbers violently assaulted the three young women working at the store, threatened their lives when they were not compliant, and eventually forced one of the employees into the safe, in addition to stealing all of the cash from the registers, hair extensions, and the employee’s cell phones.However, here’s where things get really weird. In the beauty store’s security footage of the brutal armed robbery, you can clearly see that two of the robbers are wearing official Mungion flat brims. While it’s certainly possible that these armed robbers love the Chicago-based jam band (who doesn’t?), it seems more likely that the thieves were rocking stolen Mungion merch from the theft the previous night. You can take a look at the security camera footage from the beauty store robbery below, and check out Mungion’s post about their gear being used in the robbery above. Also, as a reminder, despite now having a clear picture of one of the thieves who stole Mungion’s gear, none of the band’s gear has been recovered. Please donate to the band’s GoFundMe here or below to help the band get back on their feet before the campaign ends later in the week, and let the band or the Detroit police know if you recognize the man involved in these two robberies. You can also snag tickets to Mungion’s fall tour on their website here. read more

Bush’s move remains irrelevant to USC

first_imgFormer USC star running back Reggie Bush beat the Heisman Trophy Trust to the punch Tuesday when he forfeited his 2005 Heisman Trophy. That same day, he released a statement peppered with public relations-friendly phrases.Fallen · Bush’s Heisman forfeiture makes him the first award winner to ever have the honor recinded. – Photo courtesy of USC Sports Information Bush talked about how winning the Heisman was “a dream come true” and gave credit for winning the award to his teammates, coaches, fans and family.What a good guy.But the thing that everyone had been waiting to hear was buried near the end of the statement: an admission of guilt.“I would like to begin the effort to turn a negative situation into a positive one by working with the Trustees to establish an educational program which will assist student-athletes and their families avoid the mistakes that I made,” Bush said in the statement.In the last five years, Bush has rarely spoken in public about the allegations concerning his dealings with two prospective sports agents during his time at USC. Even when the NCAA found Bush to have taken part in the wrongdoing, he only said that he was “disappointed by [the] decision” and “disagreed with the findings.”Finally, Bush got off his Heisman high horse and admitted to his mistakes. It confirmed what we all already knew. We just wanted to hear it from him.After watching the Trojans limp through their first two victories because of the fallout from Bush’s actions, many fans have expressed the desire to see Bush tangibly punished. Over the last week, everyone has had an opinion about what should happen to Bush’s Heisman Trophy.Bush chose to go with self-flagellation.If Bush had manned up to his transgressions earlier, there might have been some honor in his forfeiture. But at this point, when he was probably just a Trustees’ meeting away from losing the trophy anyway, I can’t commend Bush for his actions.Bush (or his P.R. people, at least) clearly made this move to try to help his injured image. Unfortunately for him, it’s too late.Essentially, Bush has been blacklisted and removed from USC football history as if he never existed, à la George Orwell’s government in 1984. USC fans also want to pretend that he never existed because they have already lost so much at his expense. Glancing around the Coliseum during Saturday’s home opener, you would have been hard-pressed to find a single No. 5 jersey among the crowd.So does Bush’s veiled admission of guilt help his image at all? Not a lick. For those that called Bush a cheater, this just confirms that sentiment.But let’s set the record straight: Bush did not cheat the same way Barry Bonds did. He was the best college football player in 2005 and thus deserved to win that trophy.The fact that he received improper benefits, however, reverses that. If USC has to pay in very real ways — scholarship reductions, postseason bans — then so should Bush.Whether Bush chose to give the Heisman Trophy back or was stripped of it is irrelevant. USC made up its mind about Bush’s legacy when it chose to send his replica Heisman back. So did his fans when they chose to leave his jersey at home.The question now turns to what happens to the Heisman Trophy itself.The Trust has not said whether there will be no winner for that year or if the runner-up, Vince Young, will receive the award. (Although Young has already stated he would accept the award if it were offered to him.)But does it really matter? Bush has already been embarrassed enough. He is the first winner of the Heisman to return the trophy and he is no longer welcome at the school he brought so much money and so many accolades to.Bush will be out of luck if he’s looking for sympathy. Compared to what his university is going through, he’s getting off easy.At the very least, USC can now move on with the reassurance that the man already known to be guilty has finally come to grips with it himself.“Middle Ground” usually runs Tuesdays. To comment on this article, visit or e-mail Josh at [email protected]last_img read more